Remember 12.30 on 1st Feb. 2007. It was a decisive moment in Welsh political history. Let this moment in time be seared into your memory. It was when Andrew Davies transferred his loyalty from Rhodri Morgan to - guess who - Andrew himself! And it was about so much more as well.
The occasion was Questions to the 'Business' Minister, Andrew Davies. Andy surveyed the chamber, turned to face Plaid Cymru, and launched a full frontal attack, a blitzkrieg of withering insults and putdowns. He had even set up Leighton Andrews to prepare the ground with a question about the value of military jobs in Wales. (I always thought Andrew and Leighton were political enemies - but in politics, your enemy's enemy is your friend!). He also set up Irene James to ask another question so he could unload the second barrel as well.
Now, what does this little drama tell us? (and please hear me out). Firstly, that Labour's private polling has been telling them that Labour is hemorrhaging votes and that a coalition with Plaid Cymru will probably be the only way for Rhodri Morgan to limp on as First Minister after May. Such an arrangement would pave the way for Carwyn Jones to take over in 2009, when Rhodri retires. This scenario is anathema to Andrew Davies. Far better to go into opposition in May - and bye-bye Rhodri. And without the Plaid influence, its hello Andrew rather than Carwyn! A Labour recovery by 2011 - or even an earlier Rainbow Coalition collapse - and Bingo, Andy inherits the top job.
You should have seen their faces, the Plaid anti-Tories who have been clinging to the prospect of a coalition with Labour like a 'suckie blanket'. I don't know which upsets Rhodri Glyn, Dai Lloyd, Janet Ryder, Helen Mary etc the more, me throwing 'come hither' glances in their direction, or Andrew Davies showering them with the spittle of contempt and rejection.
At 12.30 today, we saw the first domino fall in a process which will lead to the Labour Party in Wales going into opposition. Andrew Davies has started his 'Mandalsonian fancy footwork dance'. The 'Rainbow Coalition' is back in the running.