Friday, June 15, 2007

Its not all over yet

Its like one of those bed-hopping farces that Brian Rix used to appear in. And we still don't know yet who are going to settle down together when the light goes off. So many doors opening and closing. It will probably finish up an accidental union. We were expecting tomorrow's Plaid conference to decide on their favoured option. I don't now think that the delegates will decide. They cannot, without causing too much blood letting. I reckon that Plaid will decide to leave both the Labour option and the Rainbow option on the table for further discussion.

There are so many hidden agendas, false trails and doublespeak going on that it is impossible to make a judgement. I was steadfastly sticking to my Rainbow dream until yesterday, when I thought the Plaid/Labour deal edged in front. But I accept that this could be a complete red herring - just so that Plaid Cymru can claim to have done everything possible before doing a deal with the Tories (just party management). But if this option is now really the favoured one, the Lib Dems are in a real hole - enough to make Mike German give Rhodri a call (which I suspect he's done already. Rhodri did not deny it last night) which may just bring the Labour/Lib Dem Coalition back into play.

The picture that is emerging from the fog before my eyes is that Plaid had decided on the Rainbow, decided to see if they could force Labour to offer all sorts of goodies so that they could be used against them later on - and then saying "Labour hasn't gone far enough". Bob's your uncle and we have a Rainbow with Ieuan as First Minister and Labour in a succession war. Nice plan - but if Labour offer enough, Plaid would look stupid refusing it. And if Mike German does decide to phone Rhodri publicly, Plaid may not get into government at all. If Lyn Neagle speaks on behalf of others in considering STV in local government, even Peter Black and the Lib Dem Council leaders would be tempted. I feel a headache coming on.

4 comments:

Ordovicius said...

I agree that Red Green = Red Herring. Labour's sweet-talking in the Lib Dems' direction only goes to show what a desperate mess they're in.

I noted that Bethan edited her recent blogpost from saying that tomorrow will see a final decision to "let's hope tomorrow leads to a final decision".

Glyn Davies said...

Well spotted Sanddef. This has got a bit to run yet.

Montgomeryshire Witness said...

If the coalition finally gets of the ground. And it's a big if. Won't we just be faced by week after week of power-struggling and petty schoolground bickering between the individual Plaid and Labour AMs and Ministers?

In other words, we'll never have stability within the Assembly. I'd like to be more positive as it's not in my persona to be nagative all the time. But something tells me.

Glyn Davies said...

Mont witness - IF it happens I expect to see more in-party turmoil than in-coalition turmoil. And IF it looks like happening, don't rule out a Lib/Lab Coalition of some sort. Labour may prefer to accept STV in local government than a Scottish style Parliament.